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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 28

San Francisco 49ers 20 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.99 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model