Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(12:24) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to SF 13, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-J.Kerley to SF 24 for 11 yards (56-M.Mauti; 16-B.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.92 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model