4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(13:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-D.Harris up the middle to NO 24 for no gain (40-D.Breaux). Officials to measure for the 1st down. Short.

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model