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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 11

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 11-S.Janikowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.32 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model