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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 30 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to DEN 16, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 28 for 12 yards (20-N.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.84 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 57, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model