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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 26

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.01 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model