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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to DEN 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-22-T.Jones. PENALTY on DEN-39-T.Nixon, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at DEN 2.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.30 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP