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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 39

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 7-M.King punts 37 yards to DEN 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.92 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model