Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to DEN 26, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood. PENALTY on DEN-31-J.Simmons, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.13 EP
69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model