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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 86

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to LV 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 48 for 10 yards (57-D.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.52 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 44, worth -2.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model