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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 94

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to CLE 44, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 46 for 2 yards (57-D.Wilson). CLE-29-D.Johnson Jr. was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.57 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 94, worth -5.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -3.19 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 52, worth -3.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model