Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:44) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to DAL 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-39-E.Reynolds. #80 Louis Tapped ball to the 1 yard line

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.98 EP
59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 60, worth -2.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model