4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 24

Dallas Cowboys 35 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 3-M.Sanchez pass short right to 87-G.Swaim to CLE 16 for 8 yards (24-I.Campbell; 39-E.Reynolds). CLE-39-E.Reynolds was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.05 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model