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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 34

Dallas Cowboys 35 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 46-A.Morris right guard to CLE 33 for 1 yard (56-D.Davis). DAL #63 Cleary reports as an eligible receiver. Cleveland challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.22 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model