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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 3 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(6:38) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to DAL 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 33 for no gain (53-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.81 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP