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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(14:54) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.58 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model