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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 22

Washington Commanders 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(1:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +3.99 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model