Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(12:30) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 59 yards to WAS 21, Center-46-C.Harris. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 35 for 14 yards (46-C.Harris). Penalty on WAS-13-M.Harris, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at WAS 21. Penalty on CIN-53-M.Flowers, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.16 EP
61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model