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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP