Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 80

New Orleans Saints 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

(6:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to SEA 32, Center-47-J.Drescher. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for 3 yards (52-C.Robertson).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.60 EP
61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 80, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model