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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 10

Seattle Seahawks 20 – New Orleans Saints 25

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Kearse.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +1.62 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.05 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.03 EP