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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 3

New Orleans Saints 13 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 3, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP