Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(12:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to SEA 17, Center-47-J.Drescher. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 28 for 11 yards (89-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.18 EP
64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model