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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 4

New Orleans Saints 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +4.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.22 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 4, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.20 EP