Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 93

Denver Broncos 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(3:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to LAC 49, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 33-D.McCluster to DEN 45 for 6 yards (50-Z.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.80 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model