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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 67

Denver Broncos 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to LAC 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 33-D.McCluster to LAC 27 for 4 yards (57-D.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model