Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 97

Denver Broncos 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 19

(2:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 68 yards to LAC 29, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 33-D.McCluster to LAC 33 for 4 yards (50-Z.Anderson, 57-D.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -3.41 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.36 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 97, worth -5.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model