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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(2:40) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 86-H.Henry (37-L.Doss).

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.04 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 2, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model