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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 4

Denver Broncos 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 19

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 8-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP