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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 8-D.Kaser punts 60 yards to DEN 2, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-25-D.Stuckey.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model