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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 10

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.32 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.41 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model