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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Denver Broncos
4th & 6 at the 46
Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7
What Actually Happened
(:19) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep right to 10-E.Sanders.
The Three Options
GO
+0.08 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.14 EP
- 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.20 EP
KICK
+0.03 EP
- 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
- 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT
-0.08 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.08 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
