Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

(:58) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to LV 25, Center-48-A.DePaola. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at LV 45 for 20 yards (9-B.Anger).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.72 EP
58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -2.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model