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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(8:41) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 24 yards to TB 18, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.96 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP