Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 87

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 67 yards to TB 20, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-A.Humphries to TB 39 for 19 yards (59-J.Condo). PENALTY on TB-53-A.Glanton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 20.

The Three Options

GO -3.36 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.58 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model