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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(3:21) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to LV 10, Center-48-A.DePaola. 30-J.Richard to LV 14 for 4 yards (89-R.Shepard).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.69 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model