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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 13

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:19) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.39 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model