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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 42

Tennessee Titans 36 – Jacksonville Jaguars 15

What Actually Happened

(2:46) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 33 yards to JAX 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.06 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP