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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 16

Jacksonville Jaguars 8 – Tennessee Titans 36

What Actually Happened

(8:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Hurns.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.02 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model