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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(9:04) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-17-A.Benn. PENALTY on JAX-17-A.Benn, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model