Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

(6:26) 9-R.Quigley punts 36 yards to CAR 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.43 EP
70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model