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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 3

Carolina Panthers 30 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(:25) 28-J.Stewart right guard to ARI 4 for -1 yards (92-F.Rucker; 98-C.Peters).

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +4.91 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model