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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 36

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Carolina Panthers 30

What Actually Happened

(6:02) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 31-D.Johnson to CAR 15 for 21 yards (98-S.Lotulelei).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model