Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 83

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Carolina Panthers 27

(10:30) 9-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to CAR 43, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 83, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model