Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 14

(14:53) 9-R.Quigley punts 39 yards to CAR 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at CAR 35 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.37 EP
76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model