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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 95

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(:40) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to SEA 46, Center-48-N.Frese. 21-P.Peterson to SEA 33 for 13 yards (33-K.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.18 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 95, worth -5.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 53, worth -3.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model