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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 54

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 9-R.Quigley punts 53 yards to SEA 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-10-B.Golden.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.52 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model