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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 54

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 9-R.Quigley punts 31 yards to SEA 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 23 for no gain (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.99 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -1.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model