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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 22

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.79 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model