Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 9-R.Quigley punt is BLOCKED by 19-T.McEvoy, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by SEA-91-C.Marsh at ARI 31. 91-C.Marsh to ARI 27 for 4 yards (80-I.Momah). PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.17 EP
68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model